A strong early candidate for 2025’s word of the year is uncertainty.

At VAFS, we get it and we work on and around it, on your behalf, every day.  While uncertainty is nothing new in hunger relief, we’re now in a period of extreme volatility on par with the lead up to COVID, but driven by a tangle of tariffs, federal cuts, and rising demand.

• Federal funding cuts to programs have started, but we cannot predict holistically the depth, duration, or net impact. The confirmed $1B cuts from Local Food for Schools and Local Food Purchase Assistance programs may be tip of the iceberg, or not.
• The global and domestic fallout from tariffs and trade wars, at a minimum, risks short-term price increases and long-term increases in food and packaging costs and availability for both imported and domestically produced commodities.
• Macroeconomic risk of recession and the knock-on effects on employment, wages, and food insecurity is increasing while Q1 US GDP growth was negative. We are halfway to a qualified recession.

Hunger relief organizations need to do even more with less while dealing with invisible supply chain delays that compound core mission risk.  Planning depends on assumptions that we can no longer hold to be true.

So, what is VAFS doing to help you navigate the uncertainty?  Mostly what we do every day… removing cost and complexity from the dry grocery supply chain.  However, we have increased focus in a couple areas.

1. Absorbing Cost Risk Upfront – We are taking large inventory positions now on several core, price-sensitive items to shield you from short-term price shocks and stockouts due to tariffs and supply chain disruptions.
2. Adjusting Inventory Management Practices – Anticipating your ordering patterns may shift due to delayed or uncertain funding, we are adjusting inventory thresholds as a buffer against disruption to reduce the risk of stockouts when you are ready to order.
3. Advocating on Your Behalf with Suppliers – In the background, we use our long-term vendor relationships serving the hunger relief industry to do invisible but high-leverage work like holding importers accountable for passing through reduced ocean freight costs.

What do we recommend you do?  Addressing funding and donation supply uncertainty or losses is the lifeblood of your organization and I won’t presume to advise you on that front.  But, to the extent purchasing food is an important element of your program and distribution strategy, I have a few recommendations.

1. Assess Alternative Items – Avoid those with concentrated exposure to high tariffs (for example, swap imported canned peaches for domestic applesauce).
2. Closely Monitor Pricing – The VAFS website features hundreds of items from dozens of vendors. Our vendor direct pricing is a real-time signal of current market pricing (domestic and import) for full-shelf life, non-distressed food.
3. Load Up on Core Items – If able, a short-term inventory load up can protect costs and availability through trade negotiations.
4. Know Your Market — Engage with your agencies to understand their changing needs to manage your supply uncertainty with intention. Communication is more important than ever.

At VAFS we share your commitment to addressing hunger by improving food access for neighbors in need.  Uncertainty and extreme volatility make that even harder.  Do not hesitate to reach out if there is anything we can do to help you.